Voter Support for Democrats Exceeds Support for Party in Power in 1994 and 2006

While history would suggest that the 2010 elections stand to be challenging for Democrats, a variety of recent polls suggest that the barriers to success for Democratic candidates this year may not be as high as some have suggested. While pundits are now commonly comparing this year's elections to those of 1994 and 2006, years in which the minority party took control of Congress, voters today express greater support for Democratic leaders and more trust in Democratic leadership than for the political party in power in either of those election cycles, In fact, an analysis of the relative strength of the party in power, the temperature readings of the incumbent president and the approval ratings and generic ballot tests for the party out of power for 1994, 2006 and 2010 proves that comparisons between those election cycles and today are at best poor.


President Obama is much more popular than President Bush was in 2006 or President Clinton was in 1994.

According to a Washington Post/ABC Poll: President Obama’s approval rating is 50%-47% [ABC/WP Poll, 7/13/10], while a Bloomberg poll measured President Obama’s approval at 52%-44% [Bloomberg Poll, 7/14/10].


In comparison, a November 2006 Washington Post/ABC poll measured President Bush’s approval at 40%-57% [ABC/WP Poll, 10/13/08] and, according to an October 1994 Gallup poll, President Clinton’s approval rating that fall was 41%-52% [Gallup President Approval Rating Index]. Considering the current state of the economy, a country engaged in two wars, the oil spillin the Gulf and united and politically motivated Republican obstruction in Congress, President Obama’s job approval ratings remain relatively strong and are much stronger than either those of President Clinton or President Bush when their party’s lost control of Congress.


Similarly, more voters trust the President and Congressional Democrats to lead the country than trust Republicans to do so.


According to a recent Washington Post/ABC poll, 43% of voters have confidence in the President and 32% have confidence in Congressional Democrats to make the right decisions for the country’s future. In comparison, only 26% have confidence in Republicans in Congress to make the right decisions for the country’s future. [ABC/WP Poll, 7/13/10] While much has been made of the result on this question for the President, politics is a comparative exercise and President Obama and Congressional Democrats remain in a stronger position with the public and are held in higher esteem than are Republicans.


In fact, on what may be the most important issue of this election – the economy – Democrats lead Republicans in voter trust, and do so by a similar margin to Democrats in 2006 and a larger margin than Republicans in 1994.


According to a Washington Post/ABC poll, registered voters trust Democrats over Republicans 42% to 34% to do a better job handling the economy, an 8 point margin [ABC/WP Poll, 7/13/10].


In October 2006, when the Washington Post/ABC asked the same question, registered voters picked Democrats over Republicans by 50%-41% [ABC/WP Poll, 7/13/10], a nine point margin. And when they asked the same question in 1994, registered voters picked Republicans over Democrats 43%-38% [ABC/WP Poll, 7/13/10], a five point margin. So, in the two most recent elections where control of Congress flipped from one party to the other the party out of power held the advantage on the economy while the party in power holds that advantage today.


And voters don’t just trust Democrats on the economy; they support Democrats’ legislative efforts to improve the American economy and to move our country forward in other ways. And voters are more likely to support candidates who back the Democratic agenda.


A recent Washington Post/ABC poll found that 39% of voters are more likely to support a candidate who supports the Recovery Act, compared to 37% who are more likely to support a candidate who opposes the Recovery Act [ABC/WP Poll, 7/13/10]. Similarly, a recent Bloomberg poll found that 58% of voters are more likely to support a Congressional candidate that “supports spending government money to create jobs and stimulate employment,” while just 24% said they would be less likely to support that candidate [Bloomberg Poll, 7/14/10].


According to NBC/WSJ, 51% are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate who says they will give health care a chance while only 44% say they would be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate who says it should be repealed. (NBC/WSJ, 6/21)



And a recent Bloomberg poll found that 45% of voters say they are more likely to support a Congressional candidate who supports “tougher regulations on Wall Street firms,” while only 15% would be less likely to support such a candidate.

Polls Indicating Republican Electoral Potential Fail to Make the Case for a Major Republican Victory

Despite voter support for Democrats on key issue tests like the economy, some polls do show narrow support for Republicans over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot. However, Republicans hold only a tenuous lead in such polls, with generic support for Republicans this year nowhere near that of Democrats in 2006.

In the latest Washington Post/ABC poll, Republicans led Democrats on a generic congressional ballot by 47%-46%, a one-point margin with little statistical significance [ABC/WP Poll,7/13/10]. In contrast, in an October 2006 Washington Post/ABC poll, voters preferred Democrats over Republicans on a generic Congressional ballot by 54%-41% – a much larger 13 point gap[ABC/WP Poll, 7/13/10].

Similarly, Republican cheerleaders have cited polling showing support for GOP control of Congress as an electoral boon; however, such polling has proven an unreliable indicator of electoral results.

In the current Washington Post/ABC poll, voters by 51%-43% say it’s important for the GOP to control Congress as a check on President Obama’s policies. But although a September 2002 Washington Post/ABC poll found that voters supported Democratic control of Congress “as a check” on Bush’s policies by 56%-34%, more than 20 points, Democrats in that election actually lost seats [ABC/WP Poll, 7/13/10].

Conclusion

While many Democratic candidates this year may face tough races, polling suggests that this election is shaping up to be different in many respects than either 1994 or 2006, with Democrats in position to win close races across the country and to maintain strong majorities in both the House and Senate. In fact, Democrats today are in a greater position of strength than Democrats in 1994 or Republicans in 2006. Democrats have real accomplishments that benefit middle class families and small businesses to campaign on, an economy that is once again growing and creating jobs and a public that still remembers the disastrous consequences of failed Republican policies that cut taxes for the wealthy, cut rules for big corporations and cut the middle class loose to fend for themselves.

So after 18 months of Democrats governing while Republicans in Congress have stood on the sideline and rooted for failure, Democrats are in a strong position to begin the campaign season and present voters with a clear choice: keep America moving forward or going back to the same polices that created the worst economy since the Great Depression.

It's the long shadow of the failed Bush economic policies that is keeping support for Republicans at a near record lows and why support for Republicans falls short of support for the minority party in either 1994 or 2006.

Thus, Republicans’ continued weaknesses and low approval ratings are helping Democrats turn this election into a choice between the two parties rather than just a referendum on the party in power. Despite the downcast assessments of Democratic political fortunes, we believe that this election stands to be different than so-called “wave” elections of the past and that Democrats have every reason to be hopeful that we can weather a treacherous political climate and maintain strong majorities in the House and Senate.  

Meet and Greet Featuring State Treasurer Dennis McKinney

The Linn County Party will host an open meet and greet at the Labette Bank, located at 501 Market St. in La Cygne on July 10 at 2 p.m.
Our featured guest speaker will be our Kansas State Treasurer Dennis McKinney. McKinney has been touring the state, helping residents recover unclaimed property over the past year and he has begun a new program to teach the importance of financial responsibility to our school children. McKinney recently announced his candidacy for state treasurer in his hometown of Greensburg, KS. Tribute was payed to residents and business owners who contributed to rebuilding a new environmentally friendly, energy efficient city, that has received world-wide recognition after the city was devastated by a tornado.
We encourage all residents in surrounding counties to attend, and help us give a warm welcome to our State Treasurer.
Light refreshments will be served.

Sat. June 19 Open Forum

U.S Senate Candidate Lisa Johnston, 2nd Congressional Candidates Cheryl Hudspeth (confirmed), Sean Tevis (likely attending), and Kenny Johnston, Kansas Democratic Party Executive Director, will be the featured speakers.
This event is open to the public - attendance by all political affiliates are encouraged to attend.
A true Democratic process deserves that every candidate for public office be heard so voters can make an informed decision.
The meeting will be at 2 p.m. in the Labette Bank, located at 501 Market St., La Cygne, KS
Light refreshments will be available.

Important Reminder: Precinct Filing Deadline

Please remember that the filing deadline for precinct committeemen and women is June 10 at noon.
You must file at the Linn County Courthouse by the deadline to have your name appear on the ballot this August.
Our county re-organizational meeting will be held on the second Saturday in August at 2 p.m. at the Labette Bank located at 501 Market St. in La Cygne.
Please check back for future important announcements.

June 19, Open Q and A - Features Three Speakers in La Cygne

On June 19, 2010, the Democratic Party of Linn County will host Lisa Johnston, candidate for U.S. Senate. Lisa is a dynamic voice for education with a long resume in promoting K-12 students to attend college. She has been a key member on college boards throughout Kansas in legislative policies that promote student academia.
As Assistant Dean for Baker University, Lisa has taken a leave of absence to run against the primary candidate on the Republican ticket in November. Lisa exemplifies the strong educational values of Kansans.

Cheryl Hudspeth of Girard, KS is running for KS 2nd District U.S. Congressional seat. Cheryl will be speaking at this meeting as well.

Also attending the June meeting will be Kenny Johnston, Kansas Democratic Party Executive Director. Kenny will discuss the importance of getting out the vote (GOTV), and how we as active community members can play a key role in voter turn-out.

The Democratic Party is grounded in the belief that all elections are vital in our Democracy.

We hope to have a good turn-out in welcoming speakers.

There will be a Q & A.
Refreshments will be provided.

Join us at 2 p.m. at the Labette Bank located at 501 Market St. in La Cygne, KS.

UPDATE: Public Meet and Greet Featuring Secretary of State Chris Biggs and State Senator Chris Steineger

Current Secretary of State Chris Biggs and State Senator Chris Steineger, both candidates for Kansas Secretary of State will be speaking and taking questions on Saturday, May 8 at 2 p.m. in La Cygne at the Labette Bank on 501 Market St.
This meeting is open to all voters.
Light refreshments will be served.
For questions please contact Denise Cassells at 913) 795-4574.

Linn County Democratic Party Opens Meeting to All Voters

By DENISE CASSELLS

LA CYGNE, Kans. – The Linn County Democratic Central Committee, on Saturday, hosted the first of several open-to-the-public meetings scheduled for this year. State Representative Shirley Palmer and Doug Barlet, County Emergency Management Coordinator and Fire Chief shared informational updates with locals from all political affiliations who attended the meeting.

Barlet opened the meeting by clarifying that the fire department seven-man board established under county commissioners to make all decisions, “direct me on what they want me to do, then I take it to commissioners for approval because the commission maintains the authority to approve those decisions. Once the commissioners approve requests directed by the board, it then becomes my responsibility to see that it happens.”

In an effort to switch out the current 1970’s pumper vehicles, the fireboard is currently working to purchase 1990s Suburban’s that would carry the same number of people without using as much fuel.

“25 to 30 percent of calls now are emergency medical assists. Much of the time, we take a $25,000 to $35,000 pumper that carries three to four people out and it is quite expensive to maintain those trucks because of heavy fuel costs. One of our mid-seventies pumpers broke down and it was six months before we could find the parts to get it fixed and back in service. These newer vehicles would provide services to citizens at a more economical cost,” Barlet said.

The Prescott Fire Station will host a ribbon cutting when it is 100 percent completed. Barlet said he spent Friday working with county road and bridge crews to place rock around the parking and driveway areas, and the contractor has some work remaining before completion is finalized.

Prescott resident Don Johnson asked why they selected property located on the west side of the railroad tracks to build the new station.

“In looking at various locations it was felt that site would be the least costly in light of excavation and back fill costs estimates from the survey. The donated property on the east side would have required running water lines,” Barlet said.

In regards to the repealed burn resolution, “We try to provide the sheriff’s office daily with current weather and indices that suggest when it’s not safe to burn. When someone calls in, it can be recommended that it’s not safe; it does not mean you can’t burn, it only provides information that weather is not conducive for burning on a given day,” Barlet said.

Barlet discussed the new IRIS call notification system provided through the Northeast Homeland Security Council. He gave details on how the system works, how locals can sign up for emergency notification, and said he hoped everyone would take advantage of the warning system.

Barlet said that in his two plus years in his current position, he has implemented emergency operations that bring a vintage 1998 system into compatibility with current requirements. With new requirements added daily, “we are working on a vulnerable operations plan for those people in our county who need special assistance in the event of an emergency.”

Other new requirements the department is working on include controlling foreign animal disease outbreak, rescuing, and providing shelter for pets in the event of a disaster or flood, and disaster debris management. Lena Dick of Mound City asked if debris would be stored on city property. Barlet explained the process of identifying first city and county storage locations once soil test were conducted to identify possible chemicals that may not be compatible with certain elements because each type of debris would need its own specific site for storage and disposal.

Barlet earned a bachelor’s degree in mining engineering, and master’s degree in engineering with an emphasis on explosives, both from Rolla, MO. He worked in engineering with the state for nearly ten years before working for the highway patrol as a state trooper for nine plus years, where he also worked in the accident reconstruction program before working privately doing accident reconstruction. He also spent nearly 25 years as a volunteer fire fighter.

“To facilitate all county services working toward the common good, having a background in these arenas, and being able to speak the language of various departments, I believe is helpful in my position,” Barlet said.

Representative Shirley Palmer said she believed this was the first time in nearly 20 years that the legislature has not worked a budget before wrap-up.
“We have been in session 75 days discussing issues other than budgets and taxes, leaving 15 days for wrap-up,” Palmer said.

With a current state shortfall of $433 million, trying to keep state programs operating at current levels for Fiscal Year 2011 has proven difficult.

“Every state in the union is experiencing budget shortfall issues due to the national recession. In the last 50 years, Kansas has not experienced two consecutive years of declining revenues more than one time. We are now in our third consecutive year, with a fourth year of declining revenue predicted. Because of this unprecedented decline, state lawmakers and the Governor have cut the state budget by over one billion dollars since July 1," Palmer said.

Palmer explained that the Senate Ways and Means Committee has fashioned a proposed $13.8 billion budget for Fiscal Year 2011.

“However, it would require $364 million in tax increases,” she said.

When asked the number of Democrats to Republicans currently elected, Palmer responded, “There are nine Democratic senate members of 40, and 47 house members of 125 are Democrats.”

The House Appropriations Committee just endorsed a proposed budget that would not replace $172 million in one-time stimulus dollars for schools.

“Specific education cuts proposed by Republican leadership include cutting public education funding by over $170 million, offset only by higher property taxes in areas that can afford them," Palmer said.

“The Republican plan removes $32.8 million to fund a $50 increase in the base budget per pupil. Their plan cuts another $85.9 million the Governor added to replace supplemental general state aid, which is money used to equalize the local option budget. Only districts below the 81.2 percentile in assessed valuation per student receive this money, which means that over 50 districts with the highest property wealth will not be affected by this reduction, while some 240 districts would lose approximately 25 percent of current LOB aid. This will equal a loss of about $130 from the current base budget per pupil for every district. This loss either would result in a budget reduction of the same amount or would require a significant increase of up to ten percent in personal property taxes. This would disproportionally harm lower income districts,” Palmer said.

Palmer believes that if these suggested cuts pass for K-12 education for fiscal year 2011, districts would face eliminating some of the most basic activities and services of the public school experience.

“Larger districts are struggling to maintain programs; smaller districts are struggling to survive. Many local schools have already closed, devastating local economies,” she said.

Already, because of funding shortfalls, 18 National Guard armories have been closed. Over 4,000 K-12 employees have lost their job. At-Risk tutoring and after-school programs have lost funding. Correctional institutions closed, and supervised parole for former inmates eliminated. College tuition has increased due to cuts. The waiting list for disabled services exceeds 5,000 people, and services for the elderly and disabled on Medicaid received cuts. Countless workers employed in these fields have faced pay cuts or had their jobs eliminated, Palmer said.