· Retirements happen every year and in every election cycle. They occur for a host of personal reasons -- often people just want to spend more time with their families.
· It’s hardly surprising that many of these announcements would come just after the holidays, when elected officials enjoy one of their longest uninterrupted breaks at home.
· Retirements are a moving target - but at this stage the numbers don’t lie -- more Republicans than Democrats have decided not to run for reelection in every category:
o In the Senate, six Republican Senators have decided not to seek reelection – while only two Democrats have decided not to. These six Republican retirements have created five competitive races in Missouri, Ohio, New Hampshire, Kentucky and Florida and Democrats have strong candidates running aggressive campaigns in each.
o Regarding the two Democratic retirements in the Senate. We believe very strongly we'll hold on to Connecticut. While Republicans are putting North Dakota in the win column, everyone should remember that while North Dakota has been a red state in Presidential politics, all of its federal office holders - two Senators and one House Member - are Democrats. The last time a Republican Senator represented North Dakota it was 1986.
o In the House, 14 Republicans are opting not to run – while 10 Democrats have made the same decision.
o And in Governors’ races across the country, four Republicans have decided not to run (Douglass (VT), Rell (CT), Crist (FL), Pawlenty (MN) – while two Democrats (Doyle (WI) and Ritter (CO)) have made the same decision. Many others, of course, are term limited out of office.
· History suggests that the 2010 election will be tough for Democrats. If you look at the past 17 midterm elections, the president’s party has lost an average of 28 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate.
· But Election Day is a long way away, and a lot can happen between now and then.
· Democrats have a very strong case to make to the American people. In the past 12 months, Democrats have brought our economy back from the brink, come closer than ever before to enacting health insurance reform and achieved historic accomplishments that will help the American people and keep us safe.
· There is a corrosive civil war going on within the Republican Party. The extreme right wing is chasing moderates – like Dede Scozzafava and FL GOP Chairman Jim Greer – out of the GOP in an attempt to “purify” the Party at any cost.
o For example, Republicans face competitive primaries in nearly every Senate race, including Nevada, California, Connecticut, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, and New Hampshire. Their primary fights are ugly, bloodletting battles with candidates moving to the right and out of the mainstream every day.
· Even RNC Chairman Michael Steele isn’t feeling optimistic. Yesterday he said Republicans would fail to take back the House, and admitted that he didn't know if Republicans were actually ready to lead the country anyway.
Caroline Ciccone
Director of Regional Press
Democratic National Committee
